Every October, the Social Security Administration announces the next year’s raise. Every fall, Medicare announces the Part B premium for the next year. The second announcement takes back some of the first one, because most people have their premium deducted directly from their Social Security checks before it reaches their bank accounts.
How the COLA and the Part B Premium Are Connected
The COLA is automatic. It is based on inflation data from the third quarter of the year and applies to retirement, survivor’s benefits, and SSDI alike. The Part B premium is set separately based on what Medicare expects to spend on outpatient care in the coming year.
Get a Free VA Benefits Consultation
The two numbers have nothing to do with each other. They just happen to be on the same check.
When the premium rises faster than COLA, your raise shrinks. Sometimes, it nearly disappears. This is exactly what happened in 2026. The COLA came in at 2.8%, lifting the average retiree benefit by about $56 per month, while the standard Part B premium increased by 9.7%, from $185 to $202.90. This single premium increase absorbed roughly a third of the average rise before beneficiaries saw it.
The Early Numbers for 2027 Look Better
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a 2027 standard Part B premium of about $209.50 per month, an increase of $6.60 or roughly 3.25%. That would be the smallest percentage increase since 2023. At the same time, independent forecasters expect the 2027 COLA to land somewhere between 3.6 and 3.8%, driven by inflation running hotter through the year.
If both projections hold true, 2027 will be the first year since 2023 in which the COLA percentage exceeds the premium percentage. The beneficiaries will actually keep most of their increase.
Before anyone celebrates, there are two important things to keep in mind:
- First, the official COLA is not announced until October 2026. The final Part B premium will also be released later in the fall. In the past, projections have sometimes missed the mark, usually on the lower side.
- It’s important to note that percentages can be misleading. The COLA applies to the full value of your benefit, while the premium increase is a fixed amount. How the trade-off will feel depends on the size of your monthly check. People with smaller benefits will likely feel the impact of premium hikes more acutely.
The Hold-Harmless Rule Offers Some Protection
Federal law includes a hold-harmless provision that prevents the Part B premium from reducing your net Social Security payment below the amount you received the previous year. For most people who have already had the premium deducted from their benefits, the check will not decrease from one January to the next.
But hold-harmless does not cover everyone. It generally will not protect new Medicare enrollees, people paying higher income-related premiums, or anyone whose premium is not deducted from a Social Security payment. And it only stops your check from shrinking. It does not stop the premium from eating your raise.
Why This Matters for SSDI Recipients Specifically
SSDI recipients qualify for Medicare after a 24-month waiting period, regardless of age. Once that coverage begins, the Part B premium typically starts to be deducted from the disability check automatically.
Many people on SSDI rely solely on that single payment without any pension or future paychecks. A raise that is offset by a premium increase is not a concern for this gro/up, as it’s simply a matter of grocery bills. If you’re still waiting for your benefits to start, plan now how your net income will look after deductions start.
From Hardship to Hope: Talk to Tabak Law
Understanding your annual adjustment is one thing. Getting approval for the benefits that the adjustment applies to is another, and this is where most people get stuck.
If you have been denied SSDI, are fighting for reduced benefits, or simply want to know what you are eligible for before Medicare deductions begin, contact Tabak Law to schedule a free consultation. Your lawyer should work for you, and so should you.
